The D'Intelligence Brief for 2025-05-06
A little bit of everything
The D’Intelligence Brief
HIGHLIGHT
United Kingdom, arrests Iranians planning terrorist attacks
Ukraine and Russia not ready for negotiations
Iran not giving into US pressure
Israel strike back
United Kingdom (Terrorism)
Five men, four of which are Iranian, have been arrested in the UK for planning a terror attack. In a separate report, the BBC stated that eight men, including seven Iranian nationals, were arrested in two separate anti-terror ops by Metropolitan Police Counter Terrorism Command. A total of five individuals were detained across England for plotting to target a specific site, while three others (aged 39, 44 and 55) are being held in London under section 27 of the national security laws. Officials stressed that they were not linking the two investigations, which reflect some of the largest counter state threat and counter terrorism operations conducted in recent years. Last year MI5 said it had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots since January 2022. There have been calls to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization in the UK. (Source: Multiple, BBC, AFP)
Ukraine
Multiple sources are reporting Intensive movement in the Donetsk oblast, where reporting indicates that Russian forces are making headway along the T504 highway, an important Ukraine defensive line of communication. Social media posts indicate Russian tank forces west of the highway, confirming that Russian forces have been able to overcome tank traps and other defensive capabilities of Ukrainian defenses. The move across the T504 highway was the most likely COA discussed as part of the Russian spring offensive back in Feb.
On May 3rd/4th, up to six explosions were reported in Domodedovo, Moscow Oblast, Russia, with an air defense system activated in response to drones. Flights were reportedly suspended at Vnukovo Airport and flight restrictions introduced at Domodedovo Airport during the attack. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin confirmed that four drones flying toward Moscow were intercepted over Podolsk, with no injuries or damage reported. Multiple social media posts indicated multiple explosions near the airports.
Separately, a Ukrainian weapons system video indicates that a Ukraine unmanned maritime drone shot down a Russian Su-30. If confirmed, it would be the first time an autonomous vessel has shot down a supersonic fighter. The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine said the autonomous vessel shot down the supersonic fighter jet on May 2 while it was flying over the Black Sea near the Russian naval base in Novorossiysk. Social media posts indicate the aircrew was able to safely eject before the aircraft crashed.
A single source report indicates there is a new Ukrainian operation into the Russian Kursk oblast again. Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces withdrew, however, social media posts showed Ukrainian penetration of Russian forces into the Kursk oblast. While it is unlikely for Ukrainian forces to retake a large area in Kursk, it demonstrates the GoU willingness to make bold moves into Russia.
A Kremlin spokesman says Russia will stick to its plans for a unilaterally-imposed ceasefire between 8 and 11 May, which is coinciding with Victory day celebrations. Several leaders of Russian partner states will be visiting Moscow during the celebration. Russian officials warned "an appropriate response will be given immediately" if Ukraine does not also halt the fire. Ukraine has not stated it will adhere to the unilateral ceasefire. The optics if President Zelensky doesn't adhere to the ceasefire will be negative, however, the temptation to attack Moscow while such a high level of visitors are participating in the celebration may be hard to resist. It is likely Ukraine may attack other areas of Russian military targets, if they have enough significant intelligence to do lethal strikes.
I am including links to three ISW reports related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
ISW Daily: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-5-2025
ISW Periodic assessment: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-occupation-update-may-5-2025
ISW Special Report Romania’s election: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/far-right-gains-romania-could-advance-kremlin-objectives
Libya
USS Mount Whitney conducted a Tripoli and Benghazi port visit to promote regional stability, national unity and Libyan sovereignty on April 20-21.
The visit reflects growing engagement with Libya by US Africa Command and the Libya External Office (LEO), and promotes interoperability, regional maritime security, and counterterrorism cooperation, according to a US Navy press release.
After the fall of the Assad regime, Russia made a pivot from Syria to Libya, a means to disrupt Western interests, exploit Libya’s fractured politics, and extend Moscow’s influence into Africa. (Source: https://www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/News/Article/4161318/uss-mount-whitney-conducts-tripoli-and-benghazi-port-visits-to-promote-regional)
Israel
The IDF has confirmed that IAF aircraft carried out strikes against Houthi terror targets in Western Yemen, in response to a number of ballistic missile and drone attacks by the Houthis recently against Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport international airport, which injured at least eight. During the 4/5 May strikes, with at least 20 fighters, targeted the Port of Hodeidah as well as the Bajil Cement Factory in the Hodeidah Governorate, both of which function as major economic and industrial resources for the Houthis. According to the IDF, 50 munitions were dropped on the Hodeidah port and the concrete plant. The operation also involved aerial refueling and surveillance aircraft. (Sources: Multiple,
The IDF released a statement on four successive waves of retaliatory strikes “along Yemen’s coastline”, including port infrastructure in Hodeidah and other sites were struck, including the concrete plant that is responsible for “the construction of underground tunnels” like the Mt. Nuqum complex targeted during past US strikes subordinate to Operation Rough Rider.
According to US officials, the US did not directly participate in the strike operations by the Israeli Air Force against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Western Yemen, but that there was coordination between Israel and the US. (Source: WH Press Release)
The Israel security cabinet recently approved a plan to expand the Gaza offensive. Israel’s security cabinet voted to intensify military operations in Gaza and call up tens of thousands of extra reservists, while also deciding on a means of distributing aid in the Palestinian territory. The block on supplies will only be lifted after the new military operations begin and more Gazan civilians have been moved to the area of Rafah in the south of the strip. Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich says victory is "when Gaza Strip is completely destroyed" and its residents "begin to leave in large numbers for third countries". A senior Israeli defense official said on Monday that the IDF will begin preparing for the expanded military operation in Gaza but will not launch it until after President Trump concludes his visit to the Middle East. Trump is scheduled to visit the region on May 13-16. (Sources: Multiple)
He added that a “key part of the plan is the evacuation of the entire Gazan population from combat zones, including from northern Gaza, to southern Gaza, while differentiating between civilians and Hamas terrorists, in order to allow the IDF operational freedom of action.” The IDF briefer continued, that “Unlike in the past, the IDF will remain in any area it captures to prevent the return of terrorism, and will operate in each cleared area according to the Rafah model, where all threats were neutralized and the area became part of the security buffer zone.” (Source: Yeshiva World News)
While the international airport was open for a majority of 2024, new strikes targeting Israel’s only international airport triggered a suspension of international flights: The following airlines have cancelled service to Israel. Effective May 5th, Aegean Airlines, Ryanair, Delta, United Airlines, Azerbaijan Airlines, Air France, Transavia. Effective May 7th, Lot, Air France, Iberia, Air India, Wizzair. Effective May 8th, ITA and British Airways. The Lufthansa group has announced that it will cancel service until at least May 11th. (Sources: Multiple)
Iran/Iran Proxy/Yemen
This week Iran unveiled a new solid-fuelled medium-range ballistic missile with electronic protective measures (EPM), new navigation and homing systems, and a maneuverable reentry vehicle. The new missile, Qassem Basir, is an upgraded version of Iran's Haj Qassem missile, which has a reported range of 1,200 km. Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh stated that the missile is equipped with a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV), infrared homing, an inertial navigation system, and EPM. If true, these (new) features would address some of Iran’s failures to successfully strike Israeli targets in April and October 2024, which saw a majority of the missiles either intercepted or malfunctioning before impact. (Source: https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/1919090642405249230, https://x.com/JoeTruzman/status/1919261479901000178, https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/1919090642405249230).
During the unveiling of the new weapons system, Nasir Zadeh continued to threaten US bases in the region in an attempt to shape Western decision-making and discourage a potential strike on Iran. (Comment: Possibly in response to Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s social media posts.) Separately, Speaker of Parliament Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf similarly stated on April 29 that any attack on Iran will "expose all US bases" in the region. The Qassem Basir, which was designed after Iran employed other missiles against the US THAAD and Israeli Arrow ballistic missile defense systems, could be an important piece of future strike packages, according to the Iranian brief.
Regarding nuclear talks between the US and Iran, Iranian officials continued to categorically reject full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program and zero uranium enrichment after statements from US officials about full dismantlement and zero enrichment. On May 2nd, Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran has the right to maintain a "complete nuclear fuel cycle", including uranium enrichment, as a Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty signatory. On May 3rd, Armed Forces General Staff affiliated Defa Press similarly published an article titled “Why is uranium enrichment Iran’s inalienable right.” The article emphasized that Iran will not “surrender” its peaceful nuclear program and will continue to pursue nuclear energy and uranium enrichment. Separately, Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei echoed these statements and rejected any calls to dismantle Iran's nuclear industry. Secretary of State Rubio stated on May 1 that Iran can retain a peaceful nuclear program if it "imports enriched uranium” and POTUS stated on 4 May that "total dismantlement...is all [he] would accept." (Source: https://x.com/araghchi/status/1918410536934375691, https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/743223, https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1918218852841787525, https://www.axios.com/2025/05/04/trump-iran-nuclear-program-dismantled)
Syria
The new Syrian Government led by Al-Jolani has officially started to crack down on pro-Palestinian factions, as two members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) were arrested by the security apparatus, with no reason stated. The HTS-led government in Syria has arrested the Secretary General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – General Command (PFLP-GC) and shut down all of its offices. This follows the Syrian government's arrest of two commanders from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) just two weeks ago, who still remain in custody with no charges.
According to PLANET imagery on 4 May 2025, the Russian Navy Admiral Grigorovich is lingering around the port of Tartus and appears to be stopped ~17 km NW of the former naval piers. The ship is likely waiting for permission to enter the port and retrieve the remaining Russian equipment and personnel it abandoned when the Assad regime fell in 2024.
India and Pakistan
India and Pakistan continue to exchange fire along the Lines of Control.
The Indian Air Force (IAF) will carry out a large scale military exercise in Rajasthan, along the International Border with Pakistan, on May 7th, according to a Notice to Airmen issued on the evening of May 6th. The drills will begin at 9.30pm May 7th and conclude at 3am on May 8th.
The IAF announcement comes amid India's preparation for a possible military response to the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people last month. (Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/how-india-shutting-airspace-will-impact-pakistan-flying-hours-operation-costs-2717801-2025-05-01, https://x.com/detresfa_/status/1919737693157917018 and https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/china-reiterates-its-unwavering-support-for-pakistan-amid-regional-tensions-with-india/articleshow/120900799.cms)
Taiwan / China
The PLAN deployed an amphibious task group to the South China Sea this week and conducted live-fire naval exercises. Participants included amphibious assault ship CNS Hainan (31), landing platform dock ships CNS Qilianshan (985), CNS Changbaishan (989) and CNS Jinggangshan (999). Just north of the amphibious task group, the US Navy, Philippines, and Japan are conducting the annual exercise Balikatan 25. Prior to the amphibious patrol, the PLA Navy’s first Type 075 amphibious assault ship, CNS Hainan (31), docked at a port in Hainan and was open to the public for tours in celebration of the founding anniversary of the PLAN.
China has banned exports of Korean products containing its rare earth metals to the US. The Chinese government has warned South Korean companies of the possible consequences of exporting any products containing strategically important metals to US defense contractors. (Source: https://www.kedglobal.com/economy/newsView/ked202504220010)
According to the INDOPACOM press release, military moves in April included the arrival Nimitz Carrier Strike Group and Zumwalt destroyer USS Michael Monsoor, the inaugural deployment of Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) anti-ship missile system to the Philippines, the first B-1B Bomber Task Force mission to Japan and F-35As forward deploy to Kadena. According to the DVIDS release, “This marks the inaugural deployment of the newly fielded Marine Corps weapon system to the Philippines and serves as a major milestone for the continuously developing U.S.-Philippines Alliance.” (Source: DVIDS). A USMC F-35B squadron from Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Arizona, deployed to South Korea to augment MAG-12/1st MAW. USAF F-35A Lightning IIs and F-15E Strike Eagles deployed to Kadena Air Base in early April. The annual military exercise Balikatan 25 is taking place in the SCS and Philippines.
The number of PLA incursions into Taiwan increased once again in April.
The PRC continues its extensive espionage campaign against the US and allies in the Pacific. Recently a former Army intelligence analyst was convicted for spying for the PRC from 2022 to 2024. Reportedly, the analyst provided the PRC information on lessons learned from the Russia–Ukraine war, which would be applicable to the defense of Taiwan. Separately, PRC military officers have visited Russian-held territory in Ukraine and toured frontlines to learn lessons and prepare the PLA for modern warfare. PRC military thinkers have previously noted the cost-effectiveness of using drones to destroy high-value targets based on their observations from the war. The lessons that the PRC draws from the war will likely inform its doctrine and strategy, especially in an invasion of Taiwan scenario. (Source: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-us-army-intelligence-analyst-sentenced-selling-sensitive-military-information)
Venezuela / Tren de Aragua (TDA)
According to a recently released and declassified US intelligence memo, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is "probably not directing" the criminal gang TDA movement into and operations within the US. The report states that “the small size of TDA's cells, its focus on low skill criminal activities and its decentralized structure make it highly unlikely that TDA coordinates large volumes of human trafficking or migrant smuggling,” according to the memo shared with New York Times on May 5th. (Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/05/06/trump-venezuela-gangs-tda-intel-memo)
Peru
State of emergency in Peru continues as violence rages on. The bodies of 13 security guards kidnapped from a major Peruvian gold mine just over a week ago were found Sunday. The Peruvian company, La Poderosa, said that a search and rescue team had recovered the staff members' remains on Sunday. It blamed their abduction on informal miners allegedly linked to criminal gangs who ambushed the gold mine on April 26. "The spiral of uncontrolled violence in Pataz is occurring despite the declaration of a state of emergency and the presence of a large police contingent which, unfortunately, has not been able to halt the deterioration of security conditions in the area," the mining company said in a statement, according to AFP. Peru's Interior Ministry said it had deployed special police forces to "locate and capture those responsible for these heinous crimes." Mining (gold and copper) is a key economic driver for Peru. Peru is unique in allowing informal miners to operate with some protections as long as they plan to legalize their operations. But illegal mining quickly boomed into a vast industry as the metals became increasingly lucrative, new mining techniques emerged and the government struggled to mount a response. Peru declared a state of emergency last month, after reports of extortion from artisanal miners and entrepreneurs in the northern mining areas. (Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/peruvian-gold-mine-security-guards-kidnapped-dead)
DEEP DIVE: NSTR